The 3 Numbers That Predict Growth
If your revenue’s growing but your margin isn’t, you’re not scaling—you’re just getting busier.
Most founders try to grow by hiring more techs, buying more leads, or saying yes to more jobs.
But real growth doesn’t come from effort. It comes from control.
There are only three numbers that drive every service business forward:
Lead Volume × Close Rate × Average Ticket Size = Revenue
If you’re not tracking and managing these every week, you’re not running a growth engine.
You’re guessing.
Why Most Founders Miss This
They’re in delivery mode.
Calls come in. Jobs get booked. Crews roll out. Money hits the account.
There’s no time to zoom out, and no system to connect cause to effect.
They know revenue is growing—but not why.
They know crews are busy—but not what’s driving performance.
And buyers can spot it immediately.
If you can’t explain what’s working—or prove that it’ll keep working without you—you’ll never get rewarded for the growth you’ve created.
Metric 1: Lead Volume
What it is:
The number of qualified inbound opportunities per week—tracked by source.
Why it matters:
You can’t grow if you can’t feed the top of the funnel.
And you can’t manage what you don’t measure.
Track weekly:
Leads per week, per channel
Quote-worthiness of each lead
Close rate by channel
CAC (directional is fine)
What to ask:
Are you over-relying on referrals?
Is your marketing spend producing qualified leads—or noise?
Are your best leads being followed up with properly?
Metric 2: Close Rate
What it is:
The percentage of quotes that turn into booked jobs.
Why it matters:
You’re already paying to generate demand. A low close rate is a sign of sales friction, quoting inconsistency, or weak qualification.
Track weekly:
Quotes sent vs. jobs closed
Win rate by service type
Common loss reasons
Rep-by-rep or tech-by-tech quoting performance (if applicable)
What to fix:
Standardize pricing logic and quoting templates
Tighten follow-up cadence
Review all lost jobs weekly—look for patterns, not anecdotes
Metric 3: Average Ticket Size
What it is:
The average revenue per completed job.
Why it matters:
Even a small increase here drives material growth—with zero change to labor or lead volume.
Track weekly:
Total revenue ÷ jobs completed
Average ticket by service type
Frequency of discounts or underpricing
Upsell / attach rates (if relevant)
What to fix:
Train quoting teams to lead with value, not price
Pre-package high-margin upsells
Coach techs who consistently underquote
Eliminate “we threw it in” jobs that dilute margin
Founder's Diagnostic: Are You in Control?
Ask yourself:
How many leads came in last week—and from which channels?
What’s your current close rate, and how has it trended this quarter?
Is your average ticket size improving—or getting squeezed?
Do you meet weekly to review these numbers with your team?
If you can’t answer those today, you’re not running a system—you’re reacting to volume.
What to Do This Week
You don’t need a dashboard. You need a starting point.
Pull 4 weeks of data.
Start simple—quotes, closed jobs, and job revenue.Calculate the 3 metrics.
Track weekly lead volume, close rate, and average ticket. No formulas. Just facts.Find the weakest link.
Don’t try to fix everything. Choose the lever that moves fastest—and get to work.Assign ownership.
Every number needs a name. Even if it’s yours for now.Create a weekly rhythm.
Meet every Monday for 20 minutes. Track trends. Discuss gaps. Test fixes.
Growth becomes predictable when it’s measured.
Predictable growth becomes transferable.
And transferable businesses get premium valuations.
Final Thought
Most founders treat revenue as the goal. Buyers treat revenue as the outcome.
What they want to see is the system beneath it.
That’s what these three numbers really prove:
Lead Volume reflects demand and positioning
Close Rate reflects process and pricing discipline
Ticket Size reflects how much trust the customer had when they said yes
Improve them, and you’re not just growing—you’re proving the business knows how to grow without you.
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